什么是蒙特卡洛模拟？

The Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique in风险管理许多PMP和PMI-RMP考试研究书没有详细描述。

大多数指南都说这是一种需要计算机帮助的复杂技术，因此有抱负的人不会进一步挖掘。这个假设是不正确的；这是一种直接的技术。

Monte Carlo Simulation

蒙特卡洛模拟是一种定量风险分析技术，用于确定实现目标的风险水平。

This technique was invented by an atomic nuclear scientist named Stanislaw Ulam in 1940, it was named Monte Carlo after the city in Monaco that is famous for casinos.

Monte Carlo Simulation is a mathematical technique that allows you to account for risks in decision-making. It helps you determine the impact of the identifiedrisks通过运行多个模拟并找到一系列结果。

Every decision has a degree of uncertainty, and Monte Carlo Simulation helps you in such situations. It makes your decision sound and avoids surprises later. You can run this simulation to analyze the impact of the risks on cost, schedule estimate, etc.

这种技术为您提供了一系列可能的结果和概率，这些概率将为任何行动选择。

例子

让我们讨论蒙特卡洛模拟在确定项目时间表中的用途。假设您有三个活动，以下估计值（几个月）：

从上表中您可以看到，根据PERT估计，您可以在17.5个月内完成这些活动。

In the best case, you can complete them in 16 months, and in the worst case, 21 months.

Now, if we run the Monte Carlo Simulation for these tasks, five hundred times, it will show us the following results:

(Please note that the above data is for illustration purpose only and it is not from an actual simulation test.)

您可以看到有一个：

• 16个月内完成该项目的机会有2％
• 17个月内完成该项目的机会8％
• 55% chance of completing the project in 18 months
• 19个月内完成该项目的机会70％
• 95% chance of completing the project in 20 months
• 100％在21个月内完成该项目的机会

This technique provides you with a more in-depth analysis of your data, and you can make a better-informed decision.

蒙特卡洛模拟的局限性

蒙特卡洛模拟有一些局限性，例如：

• The results depend on the quality of your estimates, so if the data are biased, the simulation will give a false result.
• The Monte Carlo Simulation shows the probability of completing the tasks, not the actual time to complete.
• This technique is not useful for a single activity; you need to have many activities with risk assessments completed.
• You will need to buy an add-on or a software program to run the Monte Carlo simulation.

Benefits of the Monte Carlo Simulation

The Monte Carlo simulation method has many benefits in project management, such as:

• 它可以帮助您评估项目的风险。
• 它可以帮助您预测失败的机会，安排和成本超支。
• 它将风险转换为数字，以评估对项目目标的风险影响。
• It helps you build a realistic budget and schedule.
• 它可以帮助您获得风险管理的管理支持。
• 它可以帮助您提供客观证据的决策。
• It helps you to find the chances of achievingproject milestones或中间目标。

Summary

The Monte Carlo Simulation is an essential technique in risk analysis that helps you make decisions under uncertain conditions. Although this technique is often not used in projects, if used it increases the chances of achieving project success within the approved baselines.

Have you used the Monte Carlo Simulation in your projects? How was it useful? Please share your thoughts in the comments section.