Monte Carlo Analysis in Project Management.

A Monte Carlo analysis is an important technique used inrisk managementthat many PMP and PMI-RMP exam study books gloss over.

Most of the guides say it is a complex technique requiring a computer’s assistance, implying that PMP aspirants do not need further detail.This assumptionis not true, and this simulation is a straightforward technique.

Monte Carlo Analysis

A Monte Carlo analysis is a quantitative analysis technique used to identify the risk level of achieving objectives.

该技术是由1940年的一位名叫Stanislaw Ulam的核科学家发明的。它以摩纳哥著名的赌场城市命名为蒙特卡洛。

A Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique that allows you to account for risks in decision-making. It helps you determine the impact of identified风险by running multiple simulations and finding a range of outcomes.

每个决定都有一定程度的不确定性，蒙特卡洛模拟可帮助您获取更多信息。它使您可以做出合理的选择，并以后避免出人意料。您可以运行此模拟，以分析风险对成本，进度估计等等的影响。

You get a range of possible outcomes and probabilities for any course of action.

Monte Carlo Analysis Example

Let’s discuss using Monte Carlo analysis when creating the project schedule. Suppose that you have three activities with the following duration estimates (in months):

According to the PERT estimate, you can complete these activities in 17.5 months.

In the best case, it will only take you 16 months, and in the worst, 21 months.

Now, if we run the Monte Carlo simulation for these tasks 500 times, it will show the following:

（请注意，以上数据仅用于说明目的，而不是来自实际的仿真测试。）

（请注意，以上数据仅仅是目的，而不是来自实际仿真。）

You can see that there is a:

• 2% chance of completing the project in 16 months
• 8%的机会完成the project in 17 months
• 55% chance of completing the project in 18 months
• 70% chance of completing the project in 19 months
• 95％的机会在20个月内完成该项目
• 100% chance of completing the project in 21 months

This technique provides you with a more in-depth analysis of your data, allowing you to make a better-informed decision.

Limitations of the Monte Carlo Analysis

The Monte Carlo simulation has a few limitations, for example:

• The results depend on the quality of your estimates, so if the data are biased, you will get a false result.
• The Monte Carlo analysis shows the probability of completing the tasks, not the actual time required.
• 该技术对于单个活动没有用。您必须有几个，并且要完成风险评估。
• You will need to buy an add-on or a software program to run the Monte Carlo simulation.

Benefits of the Monte Carlo Analysis

This method has many benefits in project management, such as:

• It helps you evaluate the risk of the project.
• It helps you predict the chances of failure in schedule and cost overrun.
• It converts risks into numbers for easy assessment.
• It helps you build a realistic budget and schedule.
• It helps you gain management support.
• It helps you in decision-making with objective evidence.
• It helps you to find the chances of achievingproject milestonesor intermediate goals.

概括

The Monte Carlo analysis is an essential technique in risk analysis that helps you make decisions under uncertain conditions. Although it is often not used in projects, it increases the chances of achieving project success within the approved baselines when applied.

Have you used the Monte Carlo analysis in your projects? How was it useful? Please share your thoughts in the comment section.